Despite the theatre, emotion and unruly demonstrations, the gathering of the 10,000 participants at the Copenhagen climate change conference was the easy part. The hard part is finding ways to implement climate policies here and now. This is a task for Canadian political leadership.
To this point, Canada has really been on the sidelines, an inconsequential player on the emissions front and a convenient punching bag for environmentalists here and abroad who fear that any criticism of the United States could undercut President Barack Obama’s capacity to pull a last-minute deal out of his rhetorical hat. This will now change as the critical policy discussions come home from Copenhagen, and as we turn to concrete choices that will have real impact on the lives of Canadians.
The international negotiations have focused on the depth and timetable for cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, whether the same targets and timetables should apply to developed and developing countries, and the extent to which developed countries should pay for the costs of climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries.
A difficult challenge
Although the outcome of these negotiations will form the international rule book for the next decade, that rule book will not dictate how individual countries will meet agreed upon targets. This is a matter for domestic policy and politics, and for Canadians it will be a difficult challenge.
Part of the challenge comes from figuring out how to meet international targets without inflicting an unacceptable cost on a Canadian economy that is just beginning to show concrete signs of recovery. Yes, polls suggest that Canadians want action on greenhouse gas emissions, but they do not want action at any price.
An effective made-in-Canada climate strategy will have to be an intergovernmental one, for many of the policy levers rest in the hands of provincial and territorial governments. Ottawa cannot, and should not, go it alone on an issue that bears so directly on diverse provincial interests and constitutional responsibilities.
Canadian governments collectively need to determine an implementation package that accommodates very substantial regional differences in energy resources and markets. They will have to find a way to avoid damaging the western Canadian economy while at the same time addressing fears that Ontario and Quebec might bear any economic brunt. At this point, all we know for sure is that every region sees itself as a potential victim. We are a long way from an equitable way of sharing the climate policy load.
Governments will have to make difficult choices among a range of policy tools, from carbon taxes that apply to energy consumption such as a tax on gasoline at the pumps, to elaborate cap-and-trade systems that target energy production.
A national energy strategy
Ensuring alignment with climate policy in the U.S. will be a hugely difficult, but a hugely important, challenge, particularly when American commitments at Copenhagen are only the opening shot in a highly contentious and very uncertain Congressional policy process. Without this alignment, the Canadian economy faces the risk of trade protectionism that will provide no traction on climate goals, while inflicting very real damage on the Canadian economy.
Perhaps above all else, Canadians will have to forge a national energy strategy to ensure climate policies related to energy production and consumption complement, rather than subvert, national interests with respect to energy security, pricing and trade. The production, consumption and trade of energy are absolutely central to sustainable economic prosperity in this vast, cold and complex country.
Without a doubt, Canadians are always committed to doing their part, the environment included. However, whatever we do, we need to realize that while it may not have a substantive impact on the global environment, it will have a dramatic impact in our corner of the world. So, bring on 2010, and let the real work begin here.
Roger Gibbins is President and CEO of Canada West Foundation, the only think tank dedicated to being the objective, nonpartisan voice for issues of vital concern to Western Canadians.